“Johnson’s ‘intuition’ clashes with data on illegal voting”

The Hill: The numbers, agreed on by both left- and right-of-center institutes, speak for themselves:

“The Brennan Center study from the 2016 general election showed an estimated 30 incidents of suspected — not confirmed — noncitizen votes out of 23.5 million, which is 0.0001 percent of the votes cast. So the Speaker’s intuition is incorrect,” she told The Hill.

That’s a conclusion that’s also been reached by the libertarian Cato Institute, with one of its experts calling the claims one of the “most frequent and less serious criticisms” relating to migration.”

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“In top races, Republicans try to stay quiet on Trump’s false 2020 claims”

Washington Post reports that while those auditioning for Vice President maybe embracing Trump’s narrative, Republican candidates in tight races are being intentionally vague, redirecting the focus on election rules. Also not good.

“[Unlike in 2022], many of the Republicans running alongside Trump in swing races are being far more ambiguous about their stance on 2020. Whether they have previously dismissed or embraced his claims, GOP nominees in some of the year’s most critical races are now evading the question and changing the topic. A number of them have steered clear of his most brazen allegations but tried to endear themselves to Trump’s supporters by questioning voting rules.”

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“Montana’s Tribal Voters Could Determine the Makeup of the Senate”

Politico.

Native Americans are always an important voting bloc in Montana, where they make up 6.5 percent of the population, per U.S. Census data. But this November, their involvement could potentially impact the entire nation.

Control of the Senate may hang on the outcome of the Montana Senate race, where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is up for reelection in this reliably red state, likely facing off against Republican Tim Sheehy, whom former President Donald Trump has endorsed. Trump won Montana by nearly 17 percentage points in 2020, and Tester won by 3.5 percentage points — or nearly 18,000 votes — in 2018. Montana’s tribes comprise about five percent of the voting bloc, nearly twice the margin by which Tester won his last race.

Native voters are “hugely important to the Democratic base,” says Jim Messina, an Obama White House alum and former adviser to Tester with deep political roots in Montana. Tester ousted Republican Sen. Conrad Burns in 2006 in part by siphoning off some of Burns’ support among Native Americans. “Tester was able to cut into that bloc and really move them towards him,” Messina says.

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“Will You Accept the Election Results? Republicans Dodge the Question.”

NYT.

Less than six months out from the presidential contest, leading Republicans, including several of Donald J. Trump’s potential running mates, have refused to commit to accepting the results of the election, signaling that the party may again challenge the outcome if its candidate loses.

In a series of recent interviews, Republican officials and candidates have dodged the question, responded with nonanswers or offered clear falsehoods rather than commit to a notion that was once so uncontroversial that it was rarely discussed before an election.

The evasive answers show how the former president’s refusal to concede his defeat after the 2020 election has ruptured a tenet of American democracy — that candidates are bound by the outcome. Mr. Trump’s fellow Republicans are now emulating his hedging well in advance of any voting.

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“Meta’s oversight board backs takedown of Australian voter fraud posts”

Reuters.

Meta’s oversight board upheld a decision to remove two Facebook posts calling for Australians to vote multiple times in an indigenous rights referendum, but noted the social media giant had not adequately explained its ban on encouraging voter fraud.

The board, which is funded by Meta (META.O), opens new tab but run independently, said Meta was correct to protect the democratic process by preventing voter fraud when it proactively pulled the posts ahead of the 2023 vote. . . .

The decision comes as Australia’s government plans to introduce penalties for internet platforms which fail to rein in misinformation and disinformation. Last October, Australians voted down a proposal to constitutionally recognise Aboriginal and Torres Strait Island people amid fears that a misinformation campaign was influencing voters.

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“Nevada Supreme Court strikes down independent redistricting commission ballot questions”

Nevada Independent. It’s disappointing to see Nevada Democrats fighting to preserve gerrymandering, especially at the state legislative level where there’s no unilateral disarmament rationale for the status quo.

The Nevada Supreme Court on Friday unanimously affirmed a district court ruling that two proposed ballot questions each seeking to establish an independent redistricting commission are legally deficient.

The order found that the measures — identical save for when they would go into effect — were invalid because they would create a new state body (an independent redistricting commission) without establishing a revenue source to pay for it. Each sought to establish an independent, seven-member commission to draw congressional and legislative district maps, thereby removing state lawmakers’ role in the redistricting process. . . .

If supporters refile the ballot initiative, Cosgrove said they’d need to include a revenue source  such as increasing the marijuana tax. However, she said that would likely violate the single-subject rule that ballot petitions are limited to, opening it to a legal challenge or leading to a court battle about how much money was needed to fund the petition. 

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